Haruhi timid with thighighs and the cardigan? this may very well be another figure remodeled to look like haruhi.

With that look it would porbably have been easier/better to make it look like yuki. Tis a shame too since there is only 1 figure of yuki and she's really popular.

I guess it's taken from the "Someday in the rain" episode. Note she's holding an umbrella ...

It is indeed taken from the "Someday in the Rain" episode; there's an anime concept art of her in the very same pose, from the Haruhi fanbook.